Research Overview
Climate change and associated increases drought severity are major threats to California’s long-term security and are at the forefront of public awareness, yet the public health consequences of these changes are poorly understood. Preliminary evidence suggests that climate change and drought may exacerbate health hazards that are highly sensitive to temperature and moisture availability, including wildfire smoke, Coccidioides pathogens in dust, and West Nile virus (WNV) carried by mosquitoes. However, the linkages between climate changes and health impacts are complex, involving many interacting environmental, ecological, and behavioral factors, spanning multiple scientific domains, and presenting major methodological challenges for estimating and projecting the health implications of a changing climate. We have formed a transdisciplinary research team from across the University of California to tackle these challenges, with expertise in the health sciences, hydrology, climate science, and ecology. Our collaboration seeks to identify and estimate the implications of California’s changing climate on public health, generating results that empower communities to better protect health and wellbeing in a changing environment.
How will this be done?
We are building relationships with partners across the environmental sciences and public health fields in order to acquire and jointly analyze climatic, hydrological and epidemiological data from across California. Using a combination of physical and statistical models, we are evaluating wind patterns, wildfire probability, and the dispersion trajectories of smoke to estimate current and future particulate exposures within major California population centers. We are developing mechanistic and geospatial models of WNV and VF transmission to evaluate climatic and hydrological drivers of human exposure to these pathogens, assessing the role of both natural and anthropogenic water resources. Our research in these areas is assessing the historical relationships between climate and public health outcomes so as to develop predictive frameworks for estimating future exposures and their public health consequences.
How will the results be used?
Disparities in exposure to smoke, WNV, and VF may compound social inequities across California, which could worsen as climate change progresses. Smoke exposure is most severe in coastal urban populations as a result of offshore winds, and communities of lower socioeconomic status (SES) may lack the resources to avoid exposure. VF and WNV disease can disproportionately affect lower SES communities that are vulnerable to outdoor contact with environmental reservoirs or vectors of these pathogens. We are directly examining the health equity challenges that stem from heterogeneous exposures to these hazards across California, and our public engagement program is helping local communities develop customized plans to target specific vulnerable populations. We are engaging citizens at town hall meetings, students in middle school and high school settings, and public health officials in counties affected by wildfire smoke, VF and WNV, all with the goal of developing and communicating approaches to protect Californians from the adverse impacts of a changing climate on health.